Tuesday, February 12, 2013

Follow The Bots Emini Trading And HFT Daily Report 11th Feb 2013

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text courtesy of Wikipedia Creative Commons licence
Volume is said to identify signs of continuation or change, to infer the directional facilitation of trade, but "volume data, by itself, is meaningless". The reason given is that "it is essential to know what market participants are doing". Many 'profile readings' are shown in both CBOTMP1 and CBOTMP2, inferring who is trading what and what message they are sending. One method, apparently, is to see if volume is increasing to the upside or downside intra-day. It should be noted that the LDB data discussed here is end of day. Some time later the CBOT began releasing clearings during the day on the half hour. These clearings when compared to tick data indicate an approximately half hour delay. It is not explained just how reading trade facilitation with delayed data is effected.

At the beginning of the day the first hour of trading creates a range (the Initial Balance). Then, as additional information on the day's trading continued, certain chart formations, called day types, are recognized. These formations have names (1), (2), such as 'neutral day', non-trend day, trend day, etc. Another concept, the 'third standard deviation' or Steidlmayer Distribution has been discussed (1) possibly in support of day types. The Steidlmayer Distribution begins as the current, equilibrium, distribution moves out of equilibrium (1, p 175).
Objective and Subjective Elements in a Market Profile

The objective part of a Market Profile is the profile display. This comes directly from the data itself, creating TPO's (either from LDB or tick data (11)). A key element is the Initial Balance, the range and price location of the first hour of trading.

Subjectively, Steidlmayer recognized a few behavior patterns or 'Day Types' in the early part of the day (tied to the Initial Balance), defining 3 types (CBOTMPG1, Pg 12) and later, 4 (CBOTMP2, PG 4, 12). Each type developed certain characteristics, telling which sort of trader is in control (short term traders, longer traders, etc.). Mind Over Markets lists 9 day types (9). See reference 10 for a discussion of this point.

Day types, of course is chart reading and forecasting. The well known problem with interpreting charts is the multitude of potential interpretations for most any chart. Mastery theory offers some hope for traders who are willing to spend the time and effort in understanding the auction market environment. But that path can well take 10,000 hours of training. A large part of CBOTMPG1 and more particularly, CBOTMPG2, is devoted to 'reading' the profile as it develops throughout the day. CBOTMPG1 suggests that it will take six months to a year to learn the Market Profile methodology.
Limitations on Market Profile