Friday, December 28, 2012
Day 19 Santa Claus Rally - Oh No Fiscal Cliff Saved In The Nick Of Time ???
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Day 19 Santa Claus Rally - Oh No Fiscal Cliff Saved In The Nick Of Time ??? Well the markets dropped a little today. Check out the video. This is the daily report for trading the S&P 500 Emini Futures on the 28th Dec 2012 . http://sceeto.com/user/register/
Well the HFTs were active today when Obama had the Fiscal Cliff meeting but it still didn't drop as much as I thought it would. If there is going to be a soloution to this crisis caused by people then high frequency traders have already bought the market cheap. If you want real time trading signals for tracking hfts go to http://www.sceeto.com there is a very generous free trial.
Fiscal Cliff Definition courtesy of Wikipedia Creative Commons Licence
In the United States, the "fiscal cliff" refers to the economic effects that could result from tax increases, spending cuts and a corresponding reduction in the US budget deficit beginning in 2013 if existing laws remain unchanged. The deficit—the difference between what the government takes in and what it spends—is projected to be reduced by roughly half in 2013. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that this sharp decrease in the deficit (the fiscal cliff) will likely lead to a mild recession in early 2013.
The laws leading to the fiscal cliff include the expiration of the 2010 Tax Relief Act and planned spending cuts under the Budget Control Act of 2011. Nearly all proposals to avoid the fiscal cliff involve extending certain parts of the Bush tax cuts or changing the 2011 Budget Control Act or both, thus making the deficit larger by reducing taxes or increasing spending. Because of the short-term adverse impact on the economy, the fiscal cliff has stirred intense commentary both inside and outside of Congress and has led to calls to extend some or all of the tax cuts, and to replace the spending reductions with more targeted cutbacks. The protracted negotiations over this have also generated heightened policy uncertainty over the eventual tax and spending landscape in the US.
The Budget Control Act was a compromise intended to resolve a dispute concerning the public debt ceiling. Some major programs, like Social Security, Medicaid, federal pay (including military pay and pensions), and veterans' benefits, are exempted from the spending cuts.[note 1] Spending for defense, federal agencies and cabinet departments would be reduced through broad, shallow cuts referred to as budget sequestration.
The United States public debt would continue to grow even if the fiscal cliff occurs. However, over the next ten years, the smaller deficit will lower projected increases in the debt by as much as $7.1 trillion or about 70%, resulting in a considerably lower ratio of debt to the size of the economy. For the first year (from fiscal year 2012 to 2013), federal tax revenues are projected to increase by 19.63%, while spending outlays are expected to decline by 0.25%.[1](table-1.6)[note 2] These changes would raise 2013 tax revenue to 18.4% GDP, above its historical average of 18.0% GDP, while reducing spending to approximately 22.4% GDP, still above the 21.0% GDP historical spending average.[2]. The term fiscal cliff has been used in the past to refer to various fiscal issues.[3] The term started being used in the current context near the original expiration of the Bush tax cuts in 2010.[3][4] In 2011, the term started to be used to refer to the deficit reductions that would occur in 2013 under current law.[3][5]
In late February 2012, Ben Bernanke, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, popularized the term "fiscal cliff" for the impending 2012 fiscal crisis.[6] Before the House Financial Services Committee he described that "a massive fiscal cliff of large spending cuts and tax increases" would take place on January 1, 2013.[3][7][8]
Some analysts have argued that fiscal slope or fiscal hill would be more appropriate terminology because while the cumulative economic effect over all of 2013 would be substantial, it would not be felt immediately but rather gradually as the weeks and months went by.[3][6][9][10]
Legislative history
During a lame duck session in December 2010, Congress passed the Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010. The act extended the Bush tax cuts for an additional two years and "patched" the exemptions to the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) for tax year 2011. This act also authorized a one-year reduction in the Social Security (FICA) employee payroll tax. This was extended for an additional year by the Middle Class Tax Relief and Job Creation Act of 2012, which also extended federal unemployment benefits and the freeze on Medicare physician payments.[11]
On August 2, 2011, Congress passed the Budget Control Act of 2011 as part of an agreement to resolve the debt-ceiling crisis. The Act provided for a Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction (the "super committee") to produce legislation by late
Day 18 Santa Claus Rally and Fiscal Cliff looming
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Day 18 Santa Claus Rally and Fiscal Cliff looming. This is the daily report for trading the S&P 500 Emini Futures on the 27th December 2012 . If you want to follow the bots and the footprints they leave get a free trial at http://sceeto.com/user/register/ Well we are nearly there what will happen only the next few days will tell. Can't imagine that anyone could be so silly as to let this so called fiscal cliff happen. If it doesn't you can only imagine how much high frequency trading buy surges will happen. track them with sceeto.
courtesy of wikipedia creative commons licence
The term fiscal cliff has been used in the past to refer to various fiscal issues.[3] The term started being used in the current context near the original expiration of the Bush tax cuts in 2010.[3][4] In 2011, the term started to be used to refer to the deficit reductions that would occur in 2013 under current law.[3][5]
In late February 2012, Ben Bernanke, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, popularized the term "fiscal cliff" for the impending 2012 fiscal crisis.[6] Before the House Financial Services Committee he described that "a massive fiscal cliff of large spending cuts and tax increases" would take place on January 1, 2013.[3][7][8]
Some analysts have argued that fiscal slope or fiscal hill would be more appropriate terminology because while the cumulative economic effect over all of 2013 would be substantial, it would not be felt immediately but rather gradually as the weeks and months went by.[3][6][9][10]
Legislative history
During a lame duck session in December 2010, Congress passed the Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010. The act extended the Bush tax cuts for an additional two years and "patched" the exemptions to the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) for tax year 2011. This act also authorized a one-year reduction in the Social Security (FICA) employee payroll tax. This was extended for an additional year by the Middle Class Tax Relief and Job Creation Act of 2012, which also extended federal unemployment benefits and the freeze on Medicare physician payments.[11]
On August 2, 2011, Congress passed the Budget Control Act of 2011 as part of an agreement to resolve the debt-ceiling crisis. The Act provided for a Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction (the "super committee") to produce legislation by late November that would decrease the deficit by $1.2 trillion over ten years. When the super committee failed to act,[12] another part of the BCA went into effect. This directed automatic across-the-board cuts (known as "sequestrations") split evenly between defense and domestic spending, beginning on January 2, 2013. Also, the Affordable Care Act imposed new taxes on families making more than $250,000 a year ($200,000 for individuals) starting at the same time.[13]
At the end of 2011, the patch to the AMT exemptions expired. Technically, the AMT thresholds immediately reverted to their 2000 tax year levels, a drop of 26% for single people and 40% for married couples. Anyone over these reduced thresholds at the end of 2012 would be subject to the AMT. Therefore, more taxpayers would pay more unless some legislation was passed (as was done in 2007) that affects the exemptions retroactively.[11]
Santa Claus Rally Days 16 and 17 And The Fiscal Cliff
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Santa Claus Rally Days 16 and 17 And The Fiscal Cliff. Well last couple of days round Christmas were very narrow not much trading bot activity if you want to track the bots real time and be alerted when they are buying or selling get our free trial of sceeto
http://sceeto.com/user/register/
courtesy of wikipedia creative commons licence
Decisions regarding the fiscal cliff will have meaningful implications for deficits, debt, and economic growth. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has projected two fiscal scenarios for the years 2013 to 2022:[19]
The baseline projection, following current law. This scenario would have lower deficits and debt but also have lower spending and higher taxes.
The alternative fiscal scenario, estimated as another option in which some laws are changed. This results in higher deficits and debt but lower taxes and higher spending.[note 3]
These paint starkly different fiscal futures. If Congress and the President do not act, allowing tax cuts to expire and mandated spending cuts to be implemented, the next decade will more closely resemble the baseline projection. If they act to extend current policies, keeping lower tax rates in place and postponing or preventing the spending cuts, the next decade will more closely resemble the alternate fiscal scenario.
Baseline projection. The CBO has been publishing baseline projections, following the then current law, since 1985.[18] Under the current baseline, tax cuts are allowed to expire and spending cuts are implemented in 2013, resulting in higher tax revenues plus reduced spending thus lowering deficits, debt and interest for the next decade and beyond. Future deficits would be reduced from an estimated 8.5% of GDP in 2011 to 1.2% by 2021. Revenues would rise towards 24% GDP, versus the historical average 18% GDP.[20]
The total deficit reduction or debt avoidance over ten years could be as high as $7.1 trillion, versus the $10--11 trillion debt increases if current policies are extended. In other words, roughly 70% of debt increases projected over the next 10 years could be avoided by allowing the expiration of tax cuts and required sequestration expected at the end of 2012 in the absence of new legislation.[21]
CBO estimates under the baseline projection that public debt rises from 69% GDP in 2011 to 84% by 2035.[22] In the long run, lower deficits and debt should lead to relatively higher growth estimates. But, in the short run, real GDP growth in 2013 would likely be reduced to 0.5% from 1.1%. This would mean a high probability of recession (a 1.3% GDP contraction) during the first half of the year followed by 2.3% growth in the second half.[23][24]
Alternate fiscal scenario. If Congress "avoids" the fiscal cliff, the future more closely resembles the continuation of 2012 policies as described by the CBO's "alternative fiscal scenario." This scenario involves extending the Bush tax cuts, repealing the automatic spending cuts, restricting the reach of the AMT and keeping Medicare reimbursement rates at the current level (the so-called "doc fix", versus declining by one-third). Revenues are assumed to remain around the historical average 18% GDP. Under this scenario, public debt rises from 69% GDP in 2011 to 100% by 2021 and approaches 190% by 2035. This scenario has considerably higher debt and interest payments than the baseline projection, but short-term impact on the economy is avoided.[22]
Projected effects
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