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text courtesy of Wikipedia
Although many companies offer courses in stock picking, and numerous experts report success through technical analysis and fundamental analysis, many economists and academics state that because of the efficient-market hypothesis (EMH) it is unlikely that any amount of analysis can help an investor make any gains above the stock market itself. In the distribution of investors, many academics believe that the richest are simply outliers in such a distribution (i.e. in a game of chance, they have flipped heads twenty times in a row). When money is put into the stock market, it is done with the aim of generating a return on the capital invested. Many investors try not only to make a profitable return, but also to outperform, or beat, the market. However, market efficiency - championed in the EMH formulated by Eugene Fama in 1970, suggests that at any given time, prices fully reflect all available information on a particular stock and/or market. Thus, according to the EMH, no investor has an advantage in predicting a return on a stock price because no one has access to information not already available to everyone else. In efficient markets, prices become not predictable but random, so no investment pattern can be discerned. A planned approach to investment, therefore, cannot be successful. This "random walk" of prices, commonly spoken about in the EMH school of thought, results in the failure of any investment strategy that aims to beat the market consistently. In fact, the EMH suggests that given the transaction costs involved in portfolio management, it would be more profitable for an investor to put his or her money into an index fund.
At the academic level, the very concept of market timing (the act of attempting to predict the future direction of the market, typically through the use of technical indicators or economic data) is called into question by those who believe in the efficient market theory. This theory is based on the premise that, at any given time, prices fully reflect all available information on a particular stock and/or market. Thus, no investor has an advantage in predicting a return on a stock price because no one has access to information not already available to everyone else.
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