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17th July Daily Report S&P 500 emini Futures - Free Binary Options Signals
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Interpretation of pricesIn a prediction market, binary options are used to find out a population's best estimate of an event occurring - for example, a price of 0.65 on a binary option triggered by the Democratic candidate winning the next US Presidential election can be interpreted as an estimate of 65% likelihood of him winning.
In financial markets, expected returns on a stock or other instrument are already priced into the stock. However, a binary options market provides other information. Just as the regular options market reveals the market's estimate of variance (volatility), i.e. the second moment, a binary options market reveals the market's estimate of skew, i.e. the third moment.
In theory, a portfolio of binary options can also be used to synthetically recreate (or valuate) any other option (analogous to integration), although in practical terms this is not possible due to the lack of depth of the market for these relatively thinly traded securities.
In theory a portfolio of options can synthetically recreate any other financial instrument, including conventional options.
[edit] Structured Binary Options StrategiesIt may come as a surprise to many interested in the options space that put options were not introduced on the CBOE until 1977, nine years after call options were. The binary options market at present is in the same 'no-mans-land' where there is a vibrant FX binary options market with sophisticated binary options strategies, while at the other extreme there are a plethora of platforms offering one-hour bets dressing themselves up as 'investments'.
But the binary options market too has its range of straddles, strangles, call spreads, butterflies, condors etc.. which as yet have not been explored by the mainstream exchanges. Tunnels, aka rangebets, aka corridors are reasonably well-known and are priced in the manner of a conventional call spread although the tunnel is primarily a volatility trade. Others such as the Eachway Calls & Puts, Tug of War, Accumulators provide a rich seam of varied instruments providing distinct and unique P&L profiles.
As indicated above, binary options are generally perceived as European-style options that cannot be exercised before expiry. The American-style binary options are out there but are usually referred to as one-touch options. A comprehensive list of binary options strategies would include European and American binary options, 'knock-in' binary options, 'knock-out' binary options and two-asset binary options.
[edit] References1.^ Securities and Exchange Commission, Release No. 34-56471; File No. SR-OCC-2007-08, September 19, 2007. “Self-Regulatory Organizations; The Options Clearing Corporation; Notice of Filing of a Proposed Rule Change Relating to Binary Options”.
2.^ Frankel, Doris (June 9, 2008). "CBOE to list binary options on S&P 500, VIX". Reuters. http://www.reuters.com/article/companyNewsAndPR/idUSN0943920080609.
3.^ http://www.amex.com/options/prodInf/OptPiFROs.jsp
4.^ http://www.amex.com/options/prodInf/fros.settlementindex.pdf
5.^ "System and methods for trading binary options on an exchange", World Intellectual Property Organization filing.
6.^ a b http://www.cboe.com/micro/binaries/BinariesQRG.pdf
7.^ SPX Binary Contract Specifications
8.^ VIX Binary Contract Specifications
9.^ http://www.amex.com/options/prodInf/fros.specifications.pdf
10.^ http://www.nadex.com/content/files/pressrelease-01.pdf Nadex 2009 Press Release. Retrieved September 20th, 2011
11.^ Hull, John C. (2005). Options, Futures and Other Derivatives. Prentice Hall. ISBN 0-13-149908-4.
12.^ Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (1997). Dynamic Hedging: Managing Vanilla and Exotic Options. Wiley Finance. ISBN 0-471-15280-3.
13.^ Lehman Brothers, "Listed Binary Options", July 2008, http://www.cboe.com/Institutional/pdf/ListedBinaryOptions.pd
