Tuesday, July 17, 2012

17-JUL 2012 MacDaddy Spikes - How To Trade Futures

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1.Price is always a function of Supply & Demand - Regardless of the market.
2.Changes in Supply and/or Demand effect changes in Price.  The futures markets are no different from a widget market or the Ice Cream market.
3.Changes in Order Flow precede changes in Price.
4.Program Trading is the Primary Cause of changes in Supply & Demand.
5.Buy Programs Usurp Supply - Thereby increasing price.
6.Sell Programs Increase Supply - Thereby decreasing price.
7.Increases in Price momentum will fade if they are not backed by substantive Program Trading
8.As changes in Order Flow precede changes in Price, it is advisable to always enter each trade via a Stop, this way, Price activity confirms the Order Flow information.  Long trades are entered via a Buy Stop one tick above the most recent pivot, and Short trades are entered via a Sell Stop one tick below the most recent pivot.  If after a Long Entry Stop is place, price moves down and breaches the most recent low pivot, the Entry Stop is to be removed.  If after a Short Entry Stop is placed, price moves upwards and breaches the most recent high pivot, the Entry Stop is to be removed.
9.Software can monitor this activity in real-time thereby creating ongoing opportunities to follow and feast off of the Big Money just like a Pilot Fish follows and feasts off of a Shark.
10.'Smart Money' really does exist.  For Smart Money to profit from their insight, they must trade.  When they trade in an electronic market, their transactions get recorded in real-time.  Thus, they leave a footprint that can be, and is, monitored by custom TLA software.
11.There are really, really sophisticated trading entities thriving in today's electronic marketplace.  They exist and thrive because the microprocessor is at the heart of today's electronic futures markets and it enables them to write algorithms to take advantage of any, and every, discrepancy in the market.
12.Stop Losses are the bread and butter of short-term algorithmic trading shops.  They 'know' where the stops are and can fire off Program Trades with sufficient force to trigger a bucket of stops.  By doing this they create immediate liquidity which allows them to close out their positions.
13.You can use software to tell when a market is tired and is likely to turn.
14.The Forbes 400 List is wholly inaccurate.  In my opinion, If the truth be known, the Forbes 400 List would be littered with the Managing Director's of small trading enterprises that fire off thousands of trades a day using sophisticated software that is plumb smarter than the man on the street's.
15.You can increase your percentage of winning trades by incorporating Order Flow monitoring and interpretation into your analysis...primarily by having the real-time information which offers you the ability and skill to never fight the tape again.
text courtesy of Wikepedia  (please note old fashioned technical analysis is lagging in todays martkets.Technical analysis employs models and trading rules based on price and volume transformations, such as the relative strength index, moving averages, regressions, inter-market and intra-market price correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles or, classically, through recognition of chart patterns.
Technical analysis stands in contrast to the fundamental analysis approach to security and stock analysis. Technical analysis analyzes price, volume and other market information, whereas fundamental analysis looks at the facts of the company, market, currency or commodity. Most large brokerage, trading group, or financial institutions will typically have both a technical analysis and fundamental analysis team.
Technical analysis is widely used among traders and financial professionals and is very often used by active day traders, market makers and pit traders. In the 1960s and 1970s it was widely dismissed by academics. In a recent review, Irwin and Park[11] reported that 56 of 95 modern studies found that it produces positive results but noted that many of the positive results were rendered dubious by issues such as data snooping, so that the evidence in support of technical analysis was inconclusive; it is still considered by many academics to be pseudoscience.[12] Academics such as