Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Tutorial Ninja Trader Stragegy That Works - Daily report 24th Sept 2012...



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text courtesy of Wikipedia
A further encouragement for the adoption of algorithmic trading in the financial markets came in 2001 when a team of IBM researchers published a paper[22] at the International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence where they showed that in experimental laboratory versions of the electronic auctions used in the financial markets, two algorithmic strategies (IBM's own MGD, and Hewlett-Packard's ZIP) could consistently out-perform human traders. MGD was a modified version of the "GD" algorithm invented by Steven Gjerstad & John Dickhaut in 1996/7;[23] the ZIP algorithm had been invented at HP by Dave Cliff (professor) in 1996.[24] In their paper, the IBM team wrote that the financial impact of their results showing MGD and ZIP outperforming human traders "...might be measured in billions of dollars annually"; the IBM paper generated international media coverage.
As more electronic markets opened, other algorithmic trading strategies were introduced. These strategies are more easily implemented by computers, because machines can react more rapidly to temporary mispricing and examine prices from several markets simultaneously. For example Stealth (developed by the Deutsche Bank), Sniper and Guerilla (developed by Credit Suisse[25]), arbitrage, statistical arbitrage, trend following, and mean reversion.
This type of trading is what is driving the new demand for Low Latency Proximity Hosting and Global Exchange Connectivity. It is imperative to understand what is latency when putting together a strategy for electronic trading. Latency refers to the delay between the transmission of information from a source and the reception of the information at a destination. Latency has as a lower bound the speed of light; this corresponds to about 3.3 milliseconds per 1,000 kilometers of optical fibre. Any signal regenerating or routing equipment introduces greater latency than this speed-of-light baseline.
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Tutorial Ninja Trader Stragegy That Works - Daily report 24th Sept 2012...



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text courtesy of Wikipedia
Computerization of the order flow in financial markets began in the early 1970s, with some landmarks being the introduction of the New York Stock Exchange's “designated order turnaround” system (DOT, and later SuperDOT), which routed orders electronically to the proper trading post, which executed them manually. The "opening automated reporting system" (OARS) aided the specialist in determining the market clearing opening price (SOR; Smart Order Routing).
Program trading is defined by the New York Stock Exchange as an order to buy or sell 15 or more stocks valued at over US$1 million total. In practice this means that all program trades are entered with the aid of a computer. In the 1980s program trading became widely used in trading between the S&P500 equity and futures markets.
In stock index arbitrage a trader buys (or sells) a stock index futures contract such as the S&P 500 futures and sells (or buys) a portfolio of up to 500 stocks (can be a much smaller representative subset) at the NYSE matched against the futures trade. The program trade at the NYSE would be pre-programmed into a computer to enter the order automatically into the NYSE’s electronic order routing system at a time when the futures price and the stock index were far enough apart to make a profit.
At about the same time portfolio insurance was designed to create a synthetic put option on a stock portfolio by dynamically trading stock index futures according to a computer model based on the Black–Scholes option pricing model.
Both strategies, often simply lumped together as "program trading", were blamed by many people (for example by the Brady report) for exacerbating or even starting the 1987 stock market crash. Yet the impact of computer driven trading on stock market crashes is unclear and widely discussed in the academic community.[21]
Financial markets with fully electronic execution and similar electronic communication networks developed in the late 1980s and 1990s. In the U.S., decimalization, which changed the minimum tick size from 1/16 of a dollar (US$0.0625) to US$0.01 per share, may have encouraged algorithmic trading as it changed the market microstructure by permitting smaller differences between the bid and offer prices, decreasing the market-makers' trading advantage, thus increasing market liquidity.
This increased market liquidity led to institutional traders splitting up orders according to computer algorithms so they could execute orders at a better average price. These average price benchmarks are measured and calculated by computers by applying the time-weighted average price or more usually by the volume-weighted average pric
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Tutorial Ninja Trader Stragegy That Works - Daily report 24th Sept 2012...



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text courtesy of Wikipedia
A third of all European Union and United States stock trades in 2006 were driven by automatic programs, or algorithms, according to Boston-based financial services industry research and consulting firm Aite Group.[4] As of 2009, HFT firms account for 73% of all US equity trading volume.[5]
In 2006 at the London Stock Exchange, over 40% of all orders were entered by algo traders, with 60% predicted for 2007. American markets and European markets generally have a higher proportion of algo trades than other markets, and estimates for 2008 range as high as an 80% proportion in some markets. Foreign exchange markets also have active algo trading (about 25% of orders in 2006).[6] Futures and options markets are considered fairly easy to integrated into algorithmic trading,[7] with about 20% of options volume expected to be computer-generated by 2010.[dated info][8] Bond markets are moving toward more access to algorithmic traders.[9]
One of the main issues regarding HFT is the difficulty in determining just how profitable it is. A report released in August 2009 by the TABB Group, a financial services industry research firm, estimated that the 300 securities firms and hedge funds that specialize in this type of trading took in roughly US$21 billion in profits in 2008.[10]
Algorithmic and HFT have been the subject of much public debate since the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said they contributed to some of the volatility during the 2010 Flash Crash,[11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18] when the Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered its second largest intraday point swing ever to that date, though prices quickly recovered. (See List of largest daily changes in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.) A July, 2011 report by the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO), an international body of securities regulators, concluded that while "algorithms and HFT technology have been used by market participants to manage their trading and risk, their usage was also clearly a contributing factor in the flash crash event of May 6, 2010."[19][20]
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text courtesy of Wikipedia
Algorithmic trading, also called automated trading, black-box trading, or algo trading, is the use of electronic platforms for entering trading orders with an algorithm deciding on aspects of the order such as the timing, price, or quantity of the order, or in many cases initiating the order without human intervention.
Algorithmic trading is widely used by pension funds, mutual funds, and other buy side (investor driven) institutional traders, to divide large trades into several smaller trades to manage market impact, and risk.[1][2] Sell side traders, such as market makers and some hedge funds, provide liquidity to the market, generating and executing orders automatically.
A special class of algorithmic trading is "high-frequency trading" (HFT), in which computers make elaborate decisions to initiate orders based on information that is received electronically, before human traders are capable of processing the information they observe. This has resulted in a dramatic change of the market microstructure, particularly in the way liquidity is provided.[3]
Algorithmic trading may be used in any investment strategy, including market making, inter-market spreading, arbitrage, or pure speculation (including trend following). The investment decision and implementation may be augmented at any stage with algorithmic support or may operate completely automatically. http://t.co/WKbHqKME
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text courtesy of wikipedia
The most common paradigm is the electronic auction type. As of 2005, most e-business negotiation systems can only support price negotiations. Traditional negotiations typically include discussion of other attributes of a deal, such as delivery terms or payment conditions. This one-dimensional approach is one of the reasons why electronic markets struggle for acceptance. Multiattributive and combinatorial auction mechanisms are emerging to allow further types of negotiation.
Support for complex multi-attribute negotiations is a critical success factor for the next generation of electronic markets and, more generally, for all types of electronic exchanges. This is what the second type of Electronic negotiation, namely Negotiation Support, addresses. While auctions are essentially mechanisms, bargaining is often the only choice in complex cases or those cases where no choice of partners is given. Bargaining is a hard, error-prone, ambiguous task often performed under time pressure. Information technology has some potential to facilitate negotiation processes which is analyzed in research projects/prototypes such as INSPIRE, Negoisst or WebNS.
The third type of negotiation is automated argumentation, where agents exchange not only values, but also arguments for their offers/counter-offers. This requires agents to be able to reason about the mental states of other market participants.
[edit]Technologies
One research area that has paid particular attention to modeling automated negotiations is that of autonomous agents. If negotiations occur frequently, possibly on a minute per minute basis in order to schedule network capacity, or negotiation topics can be clearly defined it may be desirable to automate this coordination effort.
Automated negotiation is a key form of interaction in complex systems composed of autonomous agents. Negotiation is a process of making offers and counteroffers, with the aim of finding an acceptable agreement. During negotiation, each offer is based on its own utility and expectation of what other agents do. This means that a multi criteria decision making is need to be taken for each offer.
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text courtesy of wikipedia
An electronic communication network (ECN) is a financial term for a type of computer system that facilitates trading of financial products outside of stock exchanges. The primary products that are traded on ECNs are stocks and currencies. The first ECN, Instinet, was created in 1969. ECNs increase competition among trading firms by lowering transaction costs, giving clients full access to their order books, and offering order matching outside of traditional exchange hours.[citation needed] ECNs are sometimes also referred to as Alternative Trading Systems or Alternative Trading Networks.To trade with an ECN, one must be a subscriber or have an account with a broker that provides direct access trading. ECN subscribers can enter orders into the ECN via a custom computer terminal or network protocols. The ECN will then match contra-side orders (i.e. a sell-order is "contra-side" to a buy-order with the same price and share count) for execution. The ECN will post unmatched orders on the system for other subscribers to view. Generally, the buyer and seller are anonymous, with the trade execution reports listing the ECN as the party.
Some ECN brokers may offer additional features to subscribers such as negotiation, reserve size, and pegging, and may have access to the entire ECN book (as opposed to the "top of the book") that real-time market data regarding depth of trading interest.
ECNs are generally facilitated by electronic negotiation, a type of communication between agents that allows cooperative and competitive sharing of information to determine a proper price.
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text courtesy of wikipedia
The term 'trading platform' is generally used to avoid confusion with ‘trading system’ which is more often associated with the trading method or strategy rather than the computer system used to execute orders within financial circles.[1]
[edit]Historic development
The first electronic trading platforms were typically associated with stock exchanges and allowed brokers to place orders remotely using private dedicated networks and dumb terminals. Early systems would not always provide live streaming prices and instead allowed brokers or clients to place an order which would be confirmed some time later, these were known as 'request for quote' based systems.
Trading systems evolved to allow for live streaming prices and near instant execution of orders as well as using the internet as the underlying network meaning that location became much less relevant. Some electronic trading platforms have built in scripting tools and even APIs allowing traders to develop automatic or algorithmic trading systems and robots, which have been used by high frequency traders.
The client graphical user interface of the electronic trading platforms can be used to trade currencies, equities, future, or options and are also sometimes called trading turrets (this may be true, but is probably a misues of the term, as trading turret refers to the specialized phone appliance used by traders).
[edit]Trading platform standards
The National Futures Association (NFA) in the US lists the following general standard requirements for forex electronic trading systems;[2]
Authentication (Passwords, Authentication Tokens such as secureID cards; or digital certificates)
Encryption
Transactions recording standard
Pricing and slippage standard
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text courtesy of wikipedia
In finance, an Electronic trading platform is a computer system that can be used to place orders for financial products over a network with a financial intermediary. This includes products such as shares, bonds, currencies, commodities and derivatives with a financial intermediary, such as a brokers, market makers, Investment banks or stock exchanges. Such platforms allow electronic trading to be carried out by users from any location and are in contrast to traditional floor trading using open outcry and telephone based trading.
Electronic trading platforms typically stream live market prices on which users can trade and may provide additional trading tools, such as charting packages, news feeds and account management functions. Some platforms have been specifically designed to allow individuals to gain access to financial markets that could traditionally only be accessed by specialist trading firms such as allowing margin trading on forex and derivatives such as contract for difference. They may also be designed to automatically trade specific strategies based on technical analysis or to do high-frequency trading
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text courtesy of wikipedia
Maintenance margin A set minimum margin per outstanding futures contract that a customer must maintain in his margin account.
Margin-equity ratio is a term used by speculators, representing the amount of their trading capital that is being held as margin at any particular time. The low margin requirements of futures results in substantial leverage of the investment. However, the exchanges require a minimum amount that varies depending on the contract and the trader. The broker may set the requirement higher, but may not set it lower. A trader, of course, can set it above that, if he does not want to be subject to margin calls.
Performance bond margin The amount of money deposited by both a buyer and seller of a futures contract or an options seller to ensure performance of the term of the contract. Margin in commodities is not a payment of equity or down payment on the commodity itself, but rather it is a security deposit.
Return on margin (ROM) is often used to judge performance because it represents the gain or loss compared to the exchange’s perceived risk as reflected in required margin. ROM may be calculated (realized return) / (initial margin). The Annualized ROM is equal to (ROM+1)(year/trade_duration)-1. For example if a trader earns 10% on margin in two months, that would be about 77% annualized.
[edit]Settlement - physical versus cash-settled futures

Settlement is the act of consummating the contract, and can be done in one of two ways, as specified per type of futures contract:
Physical delivery - the amount specified of the underlying asset of the contract is delivered by the seller of the contract to the exchange, and by the exchange to the buyers of the contract. Physical delivery is common with commodities and bonds. In practice, it occurs only on a minority of contracts. Most are cancelled out by purchasing a covering position - that is, buying a contract to cancel out an earlier sale (covering a short), or selling a contract to liquidate an earlier purchase (covering a long). The Nymex crude futures contract uses this method of settlement upon expiration
Cash settlement - a cash payment is made based on the underlying reference rate, such as a short term interest rate index such as Euribor, or the closing value of a stock market index. The parties settle by paying/receiving the loss/gain related to the contract in cash when the contract expires.[5] Cash settled futures are those that, as a practical matter, could not be settled by delivery of the referenced item - i.e. how would one deliver an index? A futures contract might also opt to settle against an index based on trade in a related spot market. ICE Brent futures use this method.


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text courtesy of wikipedia
Clearing margin are financial safeguards to ensure that companies or corporations perform on their customers' open futures and options contracts. Clearing margins are distinct from customer margins that individual buyers and sellers of futures and options contracts are required to deposit with brokers.
Customer margin Within the futures industry, financial guarantees required of both buyers and sellers of futures contracts and sellers of options contracts to ensure fulfillment of contract obligations. Futures Commission Merchants are responsible for overseeing customer margin accounts. Margins are determined on the basis of market risk and contract value. Also referred to as performance bond margin.
Initial margin is the equity required to initiate a futures position. This is a type of performance bond. The maximum exposure is not limited to the amount of the initial margin, however the initial margin requirement is calculated based on the maximum estimated change in contract value within a trading day. Initial margin is set by the exchange.
If a position involves an exchange-traded product, the amount or percentage of initial margin is set by the exchange concerned.
In case of loss or if the value of the initial margin is being eroded, the broker will make a margin call in order to restore the amount of initial margin available. Often referred to as “variation margin”, margin called for this reason is usually done on a daily basis, however, in times of high volatility a broker can make a margin call or calls intra-day.
Calls for margin are usually expected to be paid and received on the same day. If not, the broker has the right to close sufficient positions to meet the amount called by way of margin. After the position is closed-out the client is liable for any resulting deficit in the client’s account.
Some U.S. exchanges also use the term “maintenance margin”, which in effect defines by how much the value of the initial margin can reduce before a margin call is made. However, most non-US brokers only use the term “initial margin” and “variation margin”.
The Initial Margin requirement is established by the Futures exchange, in contrast to other securities' Initial Margin (which is set by the Federal Reserve in the U.S. Markets).
A futures account is marked to market daily. If the margin drops below the margin maintenance requirement established by the exchange listing the futures, a margin call will be issued to bring the account back up to the required level.


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text courtesy of wikipedia
Futures contracts ensure their liquidity by being highly standardized, usually by specifying:
The underlying asset or instrument. This could be anything from a barrel of crude oil to a short term interest rate.
The type of settlement, either cash settlement or physical settlement.
The amount and units of the underlying asset per contract. This can be the notional amount of bonds, a fixed number of barrels of oil, units of foreign currency, the notional amount of the deposit over which the short term interest rate is traded, etc.
The currency in which the futures contract is quoted.
The grade of the deliverable. In the case of bonds, this specifies which bonds can be delivered. In the case of physical commodities, this specifies not only the quality of the underlying goods but also the manner and location of delivery. For example, the NYMEX Light Sweet Crude Oil contract specifies the acceptable sulphur content and API specific gravity, as well as the pricing point—the location where delivery must be made.
The delivery month.
The last trading date.
Other details such as the commodity tick, the minimum permissible price fluctuation.
[edit]Margin


To minimize credit risk to the exchange, traders must post a margin or a performance bond, typically 5%-15% of the contract's value.
To minimize counterparty risk to traders, trades executed on regulated futures exchanges are guaranteed by a clearing house. The clearing house becomes the buyer to each seller, and the seller to each Buyer, so that in the event of a counterparty default the clearer assumes the risk of loss. This enables traders to transact without performing due diligence on their counterparty.
Margin requirements are waived or reduced in some cases for hedgers who have physical ownership of the covered commodity or spread traders who have offsetting contracts balancing the position.

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text courtesy of wikipedia
In finance, a futures contract is a standardized contract between two parties to buy or sell a specified asset of standardized quantity and quality for a price agreed today (the futures price or strike price) with delivery and payment occurring at a specified future date, the delivery date. The contracts are negotiated at a futures exchange, which acts as an intermediary between the two parties. The party agreeing to buy the underlying asset in the future, the "buyer" of the contract, is said to be "long", and the party agreeing to sell the asset in the future, the "seller" of the contract, is said to be "short". The terminology reflects the expectations of the parties—the buyer hopes or expects that the asset price is going to increase, while the seller hopes or expects that it will decrease in near future.
In many cases, the underlying asset to a futures contract may not be traditional commodities at all – that is, for financial futures the underlying asset or item can be currencies, securities or financial instruments and intangible assets or referenced items such as stock indexes and interest rates.
While the futures contract specifies a trade taking place in the future, the purpose of the futures exchange institution is to act as intermediary and minimize the risk of default by either party. Thus the exchange requires both parties to put up an initial amount of cash, the margin. Additionally, since the futures price will generally change daily, the difference in the prior agreed-upon price and the daily futures price is settled daily also (variation margin). The exchange will draw money out of one party's margin account and put it into the other's so that each party has the appropriate daily loss or profit. If the margin account goes below a certain value, then a margin call is made and the account owner must replenish the margin account. This process is known as marking to market. Thus on the delivery date, the amount exchanged is not the specified price on the contract but the spot value (since any gain or loss has already been previously settled by marking to market).
A closely related contract is a forward contract. A forward is like a futures in that it specifies the exchange of goods for a specified price at a specified future date. However, a forward is not traded on an exchange and thus does not have the interim partial payments due to marking to market. Nor is the contract standardized, as on the exchange.
Unlike an option, both parties of a futures contract must fulfill the contract on the delivery date. The seller delivers the underlying asset to the buyer, or, if it is a cash-settled futures contract, then cash is transferred from the futures trader who sustained a loss to the one who made a profit. To exit the commitment prior to the settlement date, the holder of a futures position can close out its contract obligations by taking the opposite position on another futures contract on the same asset and settlement date. The difference in futures prices is then a profit or loss. http://t.co/WKbHqKME
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